“On Friday, the dust will come within 200km of the nation’s northeast coast, which will be the closest it gets,” the council said.
For Thursday, the council forecast that the maximum impact of the radioactive dust on the nation would be 0.0223 microsieverts per hour, which remained lower than the natural background value of 0.1 microsieverts per hour, it said.
The amount of radiation in the dust does not pose a health risk because it would take the human body 1,000 hours of being battered by the cloud of fallout to absorb the same radiation as a single chest X-ray, the council said.
Here's their big presumption:
“If the average radiation level of the dust is 1.5 microsieverts, it would potentially be diluted 100 times to 0.015 microsierverts [by the time it reached Taiwan],” Liu said."
That would be about 8.70 adult chest x-rays over a years time (with infants and children receiving adult doses as well) at constant rates of exposure, and even higher doses if it rains. Radiation does not discriminate, and is much more dangerous to those of younger age due to their cell's rapid rates of mitosis. I'm not sure how they are calculating this, but if accurate, it's not so trivial an amount.
Next up to bat? The Philippines.