Wednesday, March 16, 2011

For your own safety, make an effort to understand the current crisis. Be vigilant. Educate yourselves so you can protect yourselves

First off, i will state something that is obvious but of the utmost importance.  The first and most crucial effort that must be made to prevent a regional environmental disaster is successful cooling of the nuclear fuel at each of the problematic reactor sites in Fukushima, Japan.  The dynamics of this problem require a tedious but necessary discussion, which will be taken up as we go along.  As you may have already ascertained, wind behavior will be a crucial factor to the safety and welfare of this country going forward.  Since the inception of the reactor problems in Japan, i have been monitoring wind flow found at a few different sites which i will link below.  An important resource for us living here in the Philippines will be satellite imagery, or my particular preference, the Guam loop, or any other satellite imagery you choose which reveals cloud movement.  Here is a screenshot, click here to see recent activity in the region and pay attention to the locations of both countries.

Another helpful site is found at Intellicast, which offers both current conditions and forecasts for wind behavior in the region.

The implications should be quite obvious.  Fortunately for the Philippines and the rest of Southeast Asia, winds have blown decidedly Northeast since the first reactor problems surfaced at Fukushima.  I have been vigilantly monitoring wind behavior based on all available data, and have seen the favorable flow with my own eyes. Great news, but we have to remember that wind activity can change at any time.  The combination of continued venting and explosions with subsequent release of radioactive gases, along with unfavorable wind direction will put us at risk, make no mistake about it.

One important detail we all must consider is the above chart.  Different types of clouds dwell at different altitudes, so what we see on satellite may not necessarily reflect an existing under/overcurrent.  I am not a meteorologist, but  i'll bet getting data on cross-altitude wind activity may be quite challenging.  They key point here:  Observed cloud movement won't reveal it all.

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